European Model: 90% Chance of Wet Winter for Southern California Play

One of the world's top climate models gives Southern California more than a 90% chance of above-normal precipitation from December through February.

The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts says the California coast could receive 40% to 70% more precipitation than normal during that period. We could get more than 20 inches of rain in that time. That is double the usual amount of rain that usually falls on Malibu. But historically that happens about once every five years.

The European Center notes that its computer simulations are a useful starting point for predicting "larger-scale weather patterns," like stronger and more frequent Pacific storms.

One good sign: after two Pacific Ocean hurricanes chewed up the beaches two weeks ago, the Eastern Pacific has quieted down. The NOAA long-range forecast is for only a 30 percent chance of a hurricane forming over the next seven days.