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3 Pacific hurricanes churn now, Santa Anas may hit Wed. And another hurricane is forming.

Hurricane Polo heads for Mazatlan and El Paso, Odalysis U-turns south, Nola zigzags past Kauai, and a fourth system may become Hurricane Rachel, affecting Malibu beaches with erosion Oct 4 or 5.

By Hans Laetz

3 Pacific hurricanes churn now,  Santa Anas may hit Wed. And another hurricane is forming.

Hurricane Polo continues its path toward Mazatlan and El Paso. Hurricane Odalysis is making a U-turn and heading south. Hurricane Nola is zigzagging to the west, past Kauai.

Mild Santa Anas and hot weather are expected for three days midweek in Malibu.

A fourth hurricane — Hurricane Rachel — is forming in the tropics south of Costa Rica. Rachel may affect our beaches with more high surf a week from Monday, into the week of Oct. 4.

The National Weather Service says "there is quite the uncertainty in the evolution" of the approaching system that will create hot mountain winds blowing toward the ocean next week. Forecasters say there is "decent confidence that it will be warm," with about a 30 to 40 percent chance of near 100-degree temperatures in the valleys and at Downtown L.A.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking what might become Hurricane Rachel, a developing disturbance south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Current projections indicate that this system will likely strengthen significantly.

If that occurs, jet streams would steer the system west-northwest for quite some time, putting it in a favorable position for southerly swell impacts for the beaches of Southern California in 10 days.

However, this is rather far out, and impacts would likely not be seen until after Monday, Oct. 4.

For this week, some south-facing shores are also extra vulnerable because of lingering erosion effects from Hurricane Marie earlier this month.

Surf heights are likely to range from 4 to 7 feet for south-facing beaches Sunday through Tuesday, with a plus-or-minus of about 2 feet due to the complications.

High tides will build each day and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet above average low tide — nearly a foot higher than published astronomical tides, due to the ongoing effects of El Niño.

Forecasters warned of significant concern for coastal flooding over vulnerable south-facing beaches, though the magnitude remains uncertain. The areas of most concern include Avalon, Long Beach, Malibu and Santa Barbara.

A formal Malibu "beach hazards statement" was issued by the National Weather Service at 1:53 am today (Saturday). The statement is in effect until 4 pm Wednesday.

The reasonable worst-case scenario is for impacts similar to Hurricane Marie, but the most likely outcome is for impacts to be a step less.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots and roads, as well as potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to structures is also possible in the most vulnerable areas.

With all that stated, there is potential that impacts will be minimal if the lower-end surf outcome materializes.

High tides coming :

Sunday 10:00 am 7.0 feet

Monday 10:28 am 7.2 feet

Tuesday 11:01 am 7.3 feet

Wednesday 11:40 am 7.2 feet

Thursday 12:29 pm 6.9 feet

Friday 1:36 pm 6.6 feet

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