Swain: El Niño now certain, with extreme event possible Play

UC meteorologist Daniel Swain says we are 100% certain to have an El Niño this year. The only question — how big.

"Something to consider is that the vast majority of simulations and virtually all models predicting a very high likelihood event, but consequently very high odds — even higher than 50% — of a strong and extreme event," Swain said.

That's the University of California meteorologist Daniel Swain, who issues a weekly weather lecture on the Internet and his website, Weather West. And Swain is clearly worried.

The extreme El Niño event — the super El Niño event that is showing on his satellite maps — would hit California hard.

The last time we had conditions even approaching that was 1983, when strong waves from the hot water to the south of us caused massive wave damage along Pacific Coast Highway in eastern Malibu.

Yes — that is the same stretch of eastern Malibu where the houses burned down last year, and where city officials worry that Pacific Coast Highway is exposed to any severe action this year.