Kelvin waves and warm water keep Malibu sea levels unusually high Play

This weekend's high tides have slacked off a bit from a week ago, but even these mild high tides were still above seven feet — quite high. Regular plain old vanilla high tides are now coming in at up to 16 inches above normal.

Oceanographers think that the third Kelvin wave of the season passed up the Malibu coast last week, and Kelvin wave number four is on the way, probably in about two or three weeks. "Expect to see water in places where it's never before been," says one scientist.

Kelvin waves are deep sea pulses of water that travel up the coast from South America. They can raise sea levels by roughly one foot. They're caused by the El Niño trade winds reversing down along the equator. It looks like the third pulse of Kelvin waves arrived at San Francisco late last week. Water levels between waves may still be high also, and that's apparently what we're seeing right now. The data suggests that a fourth Kelvin wave might be making its way up the coast from the equator right about now. It could enter U.S. waters in three to four weeks.

Several factors are affecting the unusual ocean levels — the Kelvin wave, and this teensy factor: the water at Malibu is an incredible 74 degrees right now. That's 11 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. That's good enough for the expansion of the seawater, adding another inch and a quarter to the already high ocean levels.

What about the future? Sea level is going to keep rising at least through the new year, says Dillon Amaya, an expert on Kelvin waves at North Carolina State University. Every storm surge and high tide is going to happen on top of an extra foot or two of water. We're not going to see any relief from that for several more months.

The traditional lunar tide cycle will give us the so-called king tides — the highest tides of the year — over the week of Thanksgiving, Nov. 22 to 27, and then again between Dec. 22 to 26. These tides will be higher than what we got in October. Any winter storms that develop on top of those high tides will add misery to that mayhem.