New USGS forecast doubles Malibu's odds of a magnitude-8 quake
A new statewide earthquake forecast puts the chance of a giant Southern California quake in the next 30 years at 23 percent.
By Hans Laetz
Scientists at the USGS are adjusting their computer predictions of the probabilities of medium and large earthquakes in California.
A new statewide earthquake forecast has been issued — the third time that the U.S. Geological Survey has done that.
The understanding of science has changed since the last forecast. The way that major faults are segmented. The way that one quake can trigger another quake miles away, days later. And the elastic rebound effect, when a big earthquake triggers smaller earthquakes as the area returns to its relaxed state.
The new study gives a comprehensive probabilistic forecast for Malibu within the context of the greater Los Angeles seismic hazards.
It's not good.
The probabilities for a major, huge earthquake striking the Malibu area have doubled. That's magnitude 8 — horrific.
But the probabilities for moderate magnitudes — magnitude 6.4 to 7.5 — have dropped by about 30 percent.
The study says there is a 23 percent chance for a gigantic earthquake in Southern California in the next 30 years.
Comments (1)
Please give link to this new study. I would like to understand why Malibu has the same damage probability as areas closer to the San Andreas fault.