Scientists warn of extremely wet Southern California winter
UCLA's Daniel Swain says a complete reversal of Pacific trade winds gives the region an 80 percent chance of a top-10 wettest winter.
By Hans Laetz
California is seeing the big El Niño waves arriving just as scientists predicted six months ago, and now the same scientists, looking at the same models, say major rain is coming. This El Niño is so strong it has caused the equatorial trade winds to reverse direction. Normally they blow hot water from east to west toward Fiji; now they are pushing hot water back against the South American coast — the exact recipe for major rain in Southern California.
UCLA meteorologist Daniel Swain says the current El Niño involves not just a weakening but a complete reversal of the easterly trade winds in the tropical Pacific. He says Southern California stands an 80-plus percent chance of a winter that is not just wetter than average but extremely wet — in the top 10 percent of all wettest winters on record. The pattern matches earlier disastrous flood years like 1983, only bigger.
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1983 was Malibu's worst year, with houses on PCH falling-into the ocean almost hourly between Carbon Beach and Coastline Drive (including the restaurant at that intersection). And houses on the mountain tumbling onto PCH along with boulders, dirt, and mud that clogged storm drains under PCH and wiping-out homes on Big Rock Beach. I recall sandbags at Kristy McNichol's beachfront home, then, and much futility against the high surf that brought waves and sand across PCH at Malibu Seafood, broke windows and entered the Sea Lion (now Dukes) restaurant, and damaged all piers along Santa Monica Bay. Malibu Pier was closed for years circa 1995 for losing structural support pilings -- which blasted into Malibu Colony living rooms like missiles and caused Andrea's piano to float across the room.