Heavy rain, possible thunderstorms arrive Wednesday
Forecasters expect up to three inches of rain, with a slight chance of waterspouts and possible debris flows overnight.
By Hans Laetz
A widespread rainstorm will develop Wednesday afternoon and continue into the night. Forecasters say Malibu could see thunderstorms, waterspouts, and two to three inches of rain, with a good chance of debris flows if the heaviest totals materialize.
The storm will be convective — it will have energy in it, and the ocean is warm. That gives us a chance of thunderstorms and a slight chance for waterspouts. Sometimes they move ashore in the form of a tornado, but the forecast chance for that is very small.
Totals should run about an inch and a half to two inches, maybe up to three inches if a thunderstorm develops along the coast and the Santa Monica Mountains. A period of heavy rain is possible overnight, with three-quarters of an inch per hour falling.
A cold storm is coming down the coast over warm water, which can crank up thunderstorm activity. The National Weather Service gives a 5 percent chance of a waterspout forming off the coast, and if that moves ashore it would be a tornado.
As the storm moves out Thursday, a weak Santa Ana will follow this weekend with dry and warmer conditions. Unlike the weird weather earlier this month, this type of storm is normal in October.
Statistically, there's about an 80 percent chance of a cold front system moving across the area this month.
What is unusual is the very warm ocean water off the Malibu coast, which can breed convectivity — thunderstorms. And if there's heavy rain under a thunderstorm, there's a good chance of debris flows Wednesday night and Thursday.
Comments (0)· Be the first to comment.